Private Firms Fill Void With Grim Job Reports During Shutdown

October 8, 2025

The federal government shutdown has resulted in the absence of official monthly employment reports, leading private firms to step in with independent analyses. According to ADP's National Employment Report, the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September, with significant losses in manufacturing, construction, and professional services, particularly affecting the Midwest region. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Carlyle have released their own economic indicators, collectively painting a picture of a cooling labor market with rising unemployment.

Who is affected

Federal workers who are furloughed or working without compensation
Private-sector employees, particularly in manufacturing, construction, and professional services
Small and medium-sized companies experiencing job cuts
Lower-income workers who continue to trail others with significantly lower after-tax wage growth (1.4% compared to 4% for higher-income households)
Midwest region residents where 63,000 jobs were lost
The American public who now lack access to official government economic data

What action is being taken

Private firms like ADP, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Carlyle are releasing independent economic analyses to fill the data gap
The Office of Management and Budget is arguing that furloughed workers may not automatically receive back pay
Companies are continuing to invest in technology and AI infrastructure despite the economic uncertainty
The Chicago Federal Reserve is using private "real-time" indicators to estimate national unemployment rates

Why it matters

The absence of official economic data creates uncertainty about the true state of the economy
The potential denial of back pay to furloughed federal workers would mark a departure from historical precedent and may violate the 2019 Government Employee Fair Treatment Act
The private sector job losses indicate a cooling labor market despite strong economic growth in the second quarter
The data reveals economic inequality with lower-income workers experiencing much smaller wage growth than higher-income households
The shutdown is affecting economic transparency and measurement at a time when economic signals are mixed

What's next

No explicit next steps stated in the article

Read full article from source: The Washington Informer